The next big thing

A wise man once said that it is impossible to predict what will be a hot product in 10 years' time, because we cannot yet imagine it.

Professor Yrjo Neuvo, currently research director at Helsinki Technical University and formerly chief technology officer at Nokia, also made the point that technological developments that are expected to take, say, two years, inevitably end up taking five.

With beliefs such as these coming from someone who knows a thing or two about technology and the future, it's futile to crystal ball-gaze - instead, it's worth taking a look at current technologies to see if they can last the distance or are merely passing fads.

Pico projectors

There are some questions over whether Pico projectors will create new markets, or help sustain existing ones. What's without doubt is that they are getting real traction now that companies such as 3M and TI are backing them, even if it is uncertain in which direction they are going.

Several competing projection technologies are involved, including laser scanning, LCOS with colour filter, LCOS with sequential colour, Texas Instruments' DMD, and holographic projection.

All these are, in principle, suitable for the Pico projector - whether supplied as a separate "companion" product (for phones, PDAs, and portable media players) or as an embedded item within the same type of product.

It is probable that some of the technologies will find new applications. A case in point comes from Light Blue Optics (LBO), which has developed a holographic method of projection, and has worked with BMW on proof-of-concept demonstrations of head-up displays for automobiles (see box right).

Thus, while LBO will be offering projection engines for the "obvious" markets of phones and media players, the technology offers significant advantages in the automotive and similar markets. Specifically, these are:

- A holographic method uses minimum power. Light is placed only where it is needed, whereas a conventional projector blocks unwanted light.

- Despite operating at very low power, the images can be very bright when, for example, the energy is concentrated on giving status information. It can easily compete with sunlight.

- The holograms can be constructed to include geometric distortion, so that projection does not have to be on axis, and the imaging surface does not have to be flat.

- There is no conventional projection lens, so the image is always in focus.

3D and autostereo

3D is still on the next big thing list because progress with it is uneven. There will be continued attempts at producing autostereo (no glasses needed) displays, but present efforts require "sweet spot" viewing and are of low resolution. Philips has abandoned this market for the time being, having spent a lot of money trying to get it going. So, for now, systems using glasses are the only ones that give acceptable results.

Good - but not yet perfect - results are being achieved in the cinema, but in volume terms the consumer market is the target. For gaming and watching 3D movies, active shutter glasses running at 120Hz are the best current solution, and demand is pushing the cost of these down (below the $100 (£61) mark). This in turn is opening up new markets of direct significance to a-v as "3D in the classroom" becomes a reality.

Disruptive technology

Networks are already widely used for carrying audio and video, sometimes using proprietary methods (for example, Cobranet (R)) and sometimes using standard Ethernet. At InfoComm, IEEE, the professional association for the advancement of technology, introduced the IEEE 802.1 Audio/Video Bridging Standards (AVB) with its AS Precision Time Protocol (PTP).

It is only with the introduction of much faster networks that it becomes possible to consider Ethernet as the distribution medium for ALL audio, video and control signals within a professional a-v installation.

Ethernet that is 10Gb is already a reality, and 48G is said to be not far behind. With the backing of heavyweights such as Harman (of professional audio kit fame) and Broadcom (chips that will make AVB and PTP work) this one may run. And this begs the question: is this goodbye to distribution amplifiers and matrix switchers?

E-paper and e-readers

Displays based on electrophoretic film are beginning to make waves, with products such as the Amazon Kindle (TM) and the Sony Reader making the running.

These displays are very thin, need no power when showing a static image and can be made on a flexible substrate. Currently, most such displays use electrophoretic film from the company e-Ink, but with widely varying methods of providing the necessary electronic back plane.

These products are to some extent inventing markets to match the existing capability of the displays. Thus Amazon uses the Kindle as a means of shifting books by other means, and Irex and Plastic Logic are working on tie-ups with press and news sources. Polymervision's rollable display, which is expected to be launched as part of a cell phone package last year, has yet to get off the ground.

The techniques being perfected in manufacturing this type of display may turn out to be just one of the ways leading to flexible roll-up colour displays. It is not clear whether in the long term, displays tied to specific information sources will survive in a market that generally wants an open-source approach.

Following Professor Neuvo's dictum, we can see that products such as those of Plastic Logic and Polymer Vision are taking longer to get to market than expected, but it is certain that there are big low power flexible displays coming in forms we don't yet know about. In principle, the necessary plastic electronics, display medium (electrophoretic and others) scalability, colour and flexibility have all been demonstrated.

Eyewear

A lot of work is going on in the development of eyewear that allows the simultaneous viewing of the outside world and video images. Working examples of this, as used by the military, are rather clunky, but companies such as Sony, Nokia and Lumus are coming up with product ideas that will appeal to consumers.

The principle is to hide an imager in the sides of a pair of glasses and use clever optics to create an image at a comfortable distance in front of the viewer. Of course, image data arrives by wireless (for example, Bluetooth).

At the SID Symposium in June, the Fraunhofer Institute demonstrated the feasibility of combining an image sensor (camera) with an OLED microdisplay. Such a concept would allow eyewear to use much less power and be of lighter-weight construction.

On my visit to see the professor I also attended a reception at the British Embassy, and I remarked to a colleague what a good memory diplomats must have for faces and names. If I could obtain eyewear such as the Lumus device, fitted with the Fraunhofer chip, and wireless coupled to a PDA/phone with face recognition software (now bundled with Apple computers for example) my memory problems would be solved - everyone I looked at would have their name appearing in front of them. In fact, using a separate camera, such a device is entirely practical today.

Gestures and context

Display systems will increasingly be context driven. There are already systems that can change images in response to whether the viewer is male or female (assuming some sort of dress code!). Gesture-based systems, taking into account both visible and infra-red sensing, are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Initially used in "fun interactive" applications, context-aware and unusual-sensing systems will play an increasing part in daily life.

We find that Professor Nuevo cannot resist not taking his own advice. He is one of the lead authors of a document published by the EU in May entitled Future Internet 2020 - Visions of an Industry Expert Group.

One does not normally associate the EU with exciting documents, but this one, prepared by Nuevo and five equally eminent colleagues from across Europe, is stimulating. The vision is that network capacity will increase at least 100-fold during the decade, much of it wireless. Completely new memory devices will transform how networked appliances work, and new network architectures will be essential.

Features of Internet 2020 are that it is a "network of networks" and that you, as an individual, are recognised everywhere you go (assuming you want to be), so there's no faffing about with passwords, keyboards and remote controls.

It will depend on open access and sophisticated charging methods so that service providers cannot monopolise particular products, but can be sure of revenue for the service they do provide - it is envisaged that a single transaction may involve 20 or more "suppliers".

The scenarios painted in the Future Internet 2020 document introduce a lot of exciting technology and product ideas. All can be extrapolated from what can be done today - whether they appear or not will depend as much on social and economic issues as on pure technology. Needless to say, the ride should be fun.

FUTURE INTERNET 2020

The document Future Internet 2020 - Visions of an Industry Expert Group was published in May 2009 by the Information Society and Media Directorate General of the European Commission. Its ISBN number is 978-92-79-11320-8 and it is downloadable here.