Projections rise on whiteboards

It is tempting fate to suggest that any a-v sector is recession-proof, but the Europe-wide market for educational a-v technology seems to be best placed to withstand the economic downturn.

Sales of interactive whiteboards within EMEA (excluding the UK, where sales are running at 50,000 units a year) are likely to hit 250,000 this year - a 72 per cent increase on 2008 - says analyst Futuresource Consulting. That figure is expected to increase further to 360,000 units in 2010. As every whiteboard also requires a projector, this is good news for Europe's hard-pressed projector market.

And it is not just whiteboard volumes that are ramping up. Sales of voting systems within EMEA are expected to hit in excess of 80,000 units by the end of 2010.

Even in the current economic climate, Futuresource's predictions appear hard to fault - largely because the penetration of a-v technology into European schools is relatively low.

The pattern followed by the UK, which saw major injections of government money into educational technology, is now being repeated in other countries that have watched the development of educational technology in the UK and US and plan to catch up.

However they have some way to go. In the UK, 72 per cent of the country's 626,000 classrooms are now equipped with some sort of interactive whiteboard, but only 9 per cent of the 8.8m classrooms across EMEA have the technology. The UK aside, only four countries - Denmark, the Netherlands, the UAE and Norway - have installed bases of 20 per cent or more, with Denmark leading the way. Another 12 countries have installed bases of 5 to 20 per cent, while 17 other territories are yet to hit the 4 per cent mark.

Interactive awareness

'When we started carrying out these surveys, the UK was responsible for 80 per cent of interactive whiteboard sales in EMEA,' says Futuresource consultant Colin Messenger. 'Now the roles have been reversed.

'Every country is different, but there is across-the-board awareness and momentum. At the moment, most of the sales are of interactive whiteboards, because that's the traditional starting point and it is early days for most of the countries concerned. But all the main vendors now sell a range of interactive products, so the buyers will soon start to look at things such as interactive tablets and visualisers.'

The funding for educational a-v purchases is coming from a mix of sources, although government initiatives are paramount.

'There has been an increase in funding for improving the educational infrastructure and the provision of classroom technologies throughout Europe,' says Paul Berry, European president of sales and marketing for Promethean.

'In Germany for instance, around EUR10.6bn has been allocated to improve schools, with a focus on redesigning classrooms and enhancing their functionality. The Portuguese Ministry of Education has committed to rebuilding and redeveloping 500 secondary schools before 2009, and France and Spain are among the countries most rapidly adopting interactive technologies,' says Berry.

'For example,' he adds, 'the French government has recently allocated around EUR50m purely for investing in ICT, while Portugal, Italy and Malta are also committed to the implementation of interactive whiteboards and have recently awarded, or are in the process of tendering, projects with educational technology providers.'

Future funding

However, there is a question hovering over future funding, with some commentators fearing that either judicial challenges to tenders or a recession-led delay in the release of government funds will hold back sales. In Italy, for example, the current tender process has been held up by legal disputes, while Hungary, one of the Eastern Bloc states keen to invest in educational a-v, has delayed its tender.

'The economic slowdown may have an impact on the speed of interactive whiteboard adoption, by reducing the availability of discretionary spend. These effects however, will vary between countries, and will not have an impact for some time,' says Berry.

'Do not be put off by the adage that there is no money in education,' says Messenger. 'Governments often find the money to supply thousands of boards. Take a look at Mexico, where the Enciclomedia project equipped 200,000 classroom with technology worth $1.8bn.

'Adoption of the technology can be a stepped process, taking perhaps five years and starting with PC installations, followed by projectors and culminating with interactive whiteboards. But it can also be fast-tracked by governments wishing to kick-start their education system or leave a legacy.'

However, says Berry, the global financial climate is causing some countries and regions to re-evaluate their commitment to education positively. For example, Southern Italy, a region that historically relies heavily on fishing and agricultural industries, has decided to invest in interactive classroom technology to create more digitally savvy students.

'Similarly in Malta, the government is looking to diversify and future-proof its main sources of income by focusing on tertiary industries. To achieve this, the Maltese government is looking to create a workforce of competent and confident technology users for the competitive global community.' Promethean is not the only buoyant vendor.

'There is a lot of activity across Europe,' says Mark Dew, Mimio's senior key account sales manager for the UK and EMEA. 'Some European countries, such as Italy, are leap-frogging the process we saw in the UK, going straight from chalkboards to fully integrated interactive whiteboards without going through a projector-only phase.'

In some territories, he admits, there is 'still a debate as to whether interactive whiteboards improve teaching, but there is likely to be a rapid acceleration towards the UK model.'

Dew admits that 'there could be a slowdown in the second half as people examine their budgets', but the pent-up demand is so great that Futuresource is confident in its predictions.

'Nine countries are expected to sell more than 10,000 units this year,' says Messenger, so if you add all the EMEA countries together then sales of 250,000 units a year are feasible.'

With countries such as Germany running at a whiteboard/classroom penetration level of below 5 per cent, that could even be an underestimate, especially as pilot projects are being shown to deliver the goods.

In Spain, for example, Promethean worked with the Autonomous University of Barcelona to carry out a pilot project in 60 primary and secondary schools.

'Prior to the start of the trial in 2006, the majority of teachers did not use these technologies in the classroom. By the end of the pilot in June 2008 however, schools involved with the project were overwhelmed by the impact of the interactive solutions on teaching and learning,' says Berry. 'In light of the first pilot results, a second is taking place within the country, and the Spanish government is carrying out further research into the benefits of interactive classroom solutions.'

A survey at the end of the trial revealed that:

- 96 per cent of teachers believed that the use of interactive whiteboards increased class motivation and helped to capture the attention of their students;

- 85 per cent of teachers perceived an increase in student participation;

- 85 per cent believed interactive whiteboards facilitated the achievement of educative objectives; and

- 84 per cent believed interactive whiteboards facilitated teamwork and encouraged the sharing of resources.

Although interactive whiteboards are leading educational a-v technology adoption, analysts such as Futuresource and vendors such as Promethean believe that the next big thing will be sales of voting systems or, as some educationalists call them, 'learner response systems'.

Voting systems

During 2008 there were 530,000 voting system handsets sold in EMEA, with UK sales growing by 48 per cent to 276,000 units - just over half of total EMEA sales. However, penetration is running at less than 1 per cent of classrooms and several countries have put in place initiatives that will see major growth. In Norway, for example, volumes are set to rise by 180 per cent this year. Italian volumes are expected to increase by 400 per cent to 13,000 units while Spanish growth is expected to be 39 per cent (to 17,000 handsets).

As is the case with interactive whiteboards, it appears that educationalists across the EMEA region are learning from the experiences of their peers in the UK and the US before making their investments. Worldwide sales of interactive voting handsets were 6m units in 2008 (41 per cent up on 2007) and Futuresource expects 9.2m handsets to be sold in 2010.

That is largely because of their popularity with teachers. A 150-school pilot by Promethean showed that 93 per cent would implement a learning response system and that 97 per cent of teachers who used them would recommend them to other schools.

'In the next two years, penetration of learner-response systems is expected to double,' says Berry.

Infrastructure and accessories

While interactive whiteboards and voting systems are the star products they are only part of the systems being installed. Interactive whiteboards are the best value option, but every whiteboard installation also requires cabling, a projector, mounts and accessories such as visualisers.

The next stage may well be a move towards interactive flat panels, although both Dew and Berry express concerns about the technology: 'There are more interactive tablets going into higher education, but there are still cost and performance issues with touch screens,' says Dew.

Berry adds: 'Interactive whiteboards are more robust and offer greater accuracy than flat-panel displays. If you look at products such as plasma screens, once they fail they are invariably unrepairable. By contrast, an interactive whiteboard has a lifespan of around 12-15 years'.

By then, of course, the projector that powers it will have needed replacing, but the educational a-v bandwagon is unlikely to be derailed any time soon.

As Messenger says: 'A lot of the money is ring-fenced and there is no recession in educational technology.'

But, sounding a note of caution, he reminds us that 'it still has to be sold and demonstrated - there's no substitute for hands-on direct sales'.